Power Tankings, Vol 11: Matchmaker
We’re about two months away from the trade deadline. It’s probably gonna suck since it’s the trade deadline. So we’re gonna look at what players teams should trade or trade for, because we all know those teams won’t do that.
Record: 7–24–5, 44.56% Score/Venue Adjusted Expected Goals For%, 46.28% Score/Venue Adjusted Corsi For%, -56 True Goal Differential
Ben Chiarot seems like the obvious candidate given that teams will overpay for him, but Jonathan Drouin might be someone you’d want to look into trading since he’s got another year left on his deal. Retaining salary will be a must for this trade to work however since teams probably won’t be willing to give up as much for Drouin with a $5.5 million cap hit.
Record: 8–24–4, 42.8% Adj. xGF%, 42.97% % Adj. CF%, -57 True Goal Differential
It’s basically Lawson Crouse by default since there really isn’t much on that roster worth trading for outside of Jakob Chychrun. There might be enough of a bidding war that Arizona might be able to get a 1st for him, which would be a pretty huge win.
Record: 10–23–4, 46.91% Adj. xGF%, 47.4% % Adj. CF%, -36 True Goal Differential
Mark Giordano, mostly because everyone else is either a scrub or has a hefty contract.
Record: 13–17–7, 44.26% Adj. xGF%, 46.6% % Adj. CF%, -28 True Goal Differential
Travis Sanheim has another year left on his contract before he hits UFA and probably commands a hefty raise. The Flyers clearly aren’t going to turn things around by then so why not get proactive and move him now?
Record: 11–20–6, 44.19% Adj. xGF%, 46.06% % Adj. CF%, -35 True Goal Differential
They’ve got to retain salary, but Kyle Okposo is looking like a guy who could be a solid depth piece for a contender.
6. New Jersey
Record: 14–18–5, 49.25% Adj. xGF%, 49.59% % Adj. CF%, -19 True Goal Differential
Pavel Zacha is too much of a layup here so let’s go with Ryan Graves. While Graves has been effective, he’s also spent most of his time playing alongside Dougie Hamilton. It might be worth seeing if there’s a market for Graves since it might be tricky to keep him long term given that at some point Luke Hughes will displace him.
Record: 18–15–2, 49.86% Adj. xGF%, 51.39% % Adj. CF%, -2 True Goal Differential
They don’t need to trade anyone or trade for anyone they just need to nuke their front office.
Record: 17–18–1, 45.47% Adj. xGF%, 47.19% % Adj. CF%, -17 True Goal Differential
Max Domi is too much of a layup here. I’d also consider Vladislav Gavrikov but it seems like they should be able to hold onto him for a pretty reasonable price.
Record: 15–18–5, 46.11% Adj. xGF%, 45.82% % Adj. CF%, -33 True Goal Differential
Forget the layup of a Marc-Andre Fleury trade, why not see if you can get Kane or Toews to waive their NTCs and fuck off? If there’s any time to move on from those two it’s now. Plus having leaders who aren’t assholes would do quite a bit for a team that’s clearly headed towards a rebuild.
Record: 11–18–2, 45.95% Adj. xGF%, 44.51% % Adj. CF%, -23 True Goal Differential
The Sens could use an upgrade on their blueline, but perhaps the best upgrade might just be addition by subtraction *vaguely looks in the direction of Nikita Zaitsev*. Granted, it’s unlikely they move him but if there’s any way to get the rebuild back on track it might be getting rid of some of the extremely bad players on the roster.
Record: 17–17–5, 46.77% Adj. xGF%, 44.89% % Adj. CF%, -23 True Goal Differential
Tyler Bertuzzi. Yes, his vaccination status might hurt his trade value and the Red Wings will lose a good player. But it’s really hard to see anyone else worth trading that isn’t a rental.
Record: 18–15–2, 50.17% Adj. xGF%, 48.42% % Adj. CF%, -8 True Goal Differential
A new head coach and maybe a new GM, Jim Nill has Dallas in purgatory.
13. San Jose
Record: 20–17–2, 50.02% Adj. xGF%, 46.97% % Adj. CF%, -13 True Goal Differential
There are no realistic trades since the only trades they need to make are ones involving sunk costs. Maybe Logan Couture or Brent Burns gets something?
14. New York Islanders
Record: 11–13–6, 47.64% Adj. xGF%, 45.98% % Adj. CF%, -14 True Goal Differential
There’s no one they can really trade for that would help them and Lou’s probably not trading away guys because he seems too attached to guys on the roster. Might be worth trying to see if anyone wants Andy Greene or Zdeno Chara since having two slow, old defensive defensemen on the roster feels redundant (with a 3rd slow defensive defenseman in Scott Mayfield).
Record: 17–12–5, 50.13% Adj. xGF%, 52.2% % Adj. CF%, +5 True Goal Differential
The Jets are missing a #1 defenseman and the defensemen they have aren’t good enough to make up for a lack of a #1 by committee. Jakob Chychrun makes a lot of sense but getting him without giving up Cole Perfetti feels like an impossibility. Hampus Lindholm might be harder to acquire given that Winnipeg is in direct competition with Anaheim. Colin Miller could work as a short term rental if the price is right.
Record: 17–18–3, 49.35% Adj. xGF%, 49.74% % Adj. CF%, -13 True Goal Differential
The Canucks resurgance under Boudreau makes you want to think they can be buyers, but realistically they probably should be selling and trying to re-tool. Of course, good luck getting Jimmy Rutherford to sign off on that.
Record: 19–15–7, 48.83% Adj. xGF%, 49.08% % Adj. CF%, Even True Goal Differential
The Ducks are starting to fall back to earth. Selling off big name UFAs like Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson and Rickard Rakell make sense but it might be worth testing the market for Max Comtois since more assets means more ammo to go pursue a trade to improve the team’s long term future around Trevor Zegras.
Record: 17–11–6, 54.3% Adj. xGF%, 55.15% % Adj. CF%, +16 True Goal Differential
The Flames need some scoring help. Which probably means instead of getting a guy who can add that scoring Brad Treliving will just go after a half-baked half measure. So I suppose this means Jonathan Drouin.
19. Los Angeles
Record: 20–13–5, 51.49% Adj. xGF%, 53.12% % Adj. CF%, +11 True Goal Differential
Might as well use that giant hoard of prospects to acquire someone. That blueline looks pretty bad so maybe try and get Jakob Chychrun. Some actual secondary scoring could be helpful too.
Record: 24–12–3, 51.71% Adj. xGF%, 50.95% % Adj. CF%, +14 True Goal Differential
Some scoring depth or alternatively, someone who can turn Juuse Saros into a cyborg. Whether or not Other Juuse appreciates John Hynes’ expectation that he has to win games for him is something I can’t answer. So I guess Phil Kessel since Hynes loves washed up guys who used to be good.
Record: 22–10–2, 51.12% Adj. xGF%, 50.67% % Adj. CF%, +22 True Goal Differential
If the Wild need to trade anyone it’s to get rid of guys to free up full time roster spots for Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi. Grabbing a goalie might be nice so Anthony Stolarz should be someone to look at.
22. New York Rangers
Record: 25–10–4, 47.12% Adj. xGF%, 45.07% % Adj. CF%, +16 True Goal Differential
Some more secondary scoring would help. Probably Reilly Smith given Vegas’ need to clear cap space and that the Rangers aren’t directly in competition with them in the west. Maybe Smith might also help Gallant remember that he’s a good coach and not a balder Alain Vigneault.
23. St. Louis
Record: 22–11–5, 47.94% Adj. xGF%, 48.84% % Adj. CF%, +28 True Goal Differential
It might be tougher to get Chychrun without having to give up Thomas or Kyrou since they don’t have a lot of exciting prospects. Lindholm is a more reasonable acquisition if Anaheim’s on the outside looking in before the deadline. Maybe getting some more absorbent diapers for Jordan Binnington might help as well.
Record: 22–11–2, 57.97% Adj. xGF%, 54.82% % Adj. CF%, +21 True Goal Differential
Tomas Hertl might be out of play if San Jose remains in the playoff picture, even if it makes a ton of sense for them to trade him. So it’s most likely Claude Giroux given the team’s lack of a capable 2C.
Record: 21–9–9, 52.97% Adj. xGF%, 52.9% % Adj. CF%, +21 True Goal Differential
Fuck it, bring in Phil Kessel. I just want chaos.
Record: 23–14–2, 52.15% Adj. xGF%, 52.32% % Adj. CF%, +19 True Goal Differential
Vegas needs to subtract to make space for Jack Eichel since owner Bill Foley seems optimistic about his return. They could Kucherov him but that’s not going to happen. Moving Reilly Smith seems like the more obvious play given his expiring contract but Jonathan Marchessault seems like the better player to move given his contract is affordable even with term. They should also move Brayden McNabb since he offers little to nothing beyond cheapshots and isn’t worth extending for more money.
Record: 22–10–5, 55.74% Adj. xGF%, 54.36% % Adj. CF%, +26 True Goal Differential
I think it’s time for Pittsburgh to take on the most ambitious Mark Donk project out there- Pavel Zacha. If Mike Sullivan can somehow make that work he might legitimately be the greatest coach of all time. Of course Pittsburgh isn’t that stupid, so let’s go with someone who’s underlying numbers are great but lacks great boxcars in Artturi Lehkonen.
Record: 24–9–3, 55.63% Adj. xGF%, 53.8% % Adj. CF%, +30 True Goal Differential
If the Leafs didn’t extend Morgan Rielly, a trade for John Klingberg would’ve made a lot of sense. It still does even if Klingberg is a rental, but being able to keep Klingberg past next season would’ve been the biggest reason to add Klingberg.
29. Tampa Bay
Record: 26–9–5, 53.88% Adj. xGF%, 52.74% % Adj. CF%, +23 True Goal Differential
Lawson Crouse seems like the slam dunk addition here. It’s probably gonna lead to a lot of “WTF Tampa” but it’s gonna end up working out pretty well for them. Maybe not threepeat well but at least “some playoff success” well.
Record: 25–8–2, 53.37% Adj. xGF%, 56.53% % Adj. CF%, +39 True Goal Differential
This is self-explanatory: Patrick Kane.
Record: 24–8–3, 53.89% Adj. xGF%, 54.47% % Adj. CF%, +38 True Goal Differential
A goalie. Anyone who can stop enough pucks for them to realistically win games. Do they trade a 2023 1st to get Marc-Andre Fleury? They might as well since Kuemper isn’t doing his job. Anthony Stolarz could be an alternative too that might cost a bit less, or maybe even look to see if San Jose’s willing to trade James Reimer.
Record: 26–7–5, x% Adj. xGF%, x% % Adj. CF%, +49 True Goal Differential
The comments about Colorado apply to Florida as well.
Stats via Evolving-Hockey.com